Towards participatory cross-impact balance analysis: Leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in energy transition scenario workshops

This Perspective article presents a novel, participatory scenario development method for studying the energy transition. It shows how moving towards transdisciplinarity can inform formal scenario analysis and enhance modelling by engaging stakeholders and scientific communities to co-develop energy transition scenarios. The innovative approach combines participatory elements of morphological analysis with formal cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), and it was tested at a series of energy transition scenario workshops held in 2021 both virtually and in person. Focusing on the first workshop of the series, we present the resulting data collection strategy and critically reflect on the analytical potential of the approach. We highlight the advantage of CIB in grasping the complexity and the multi-scale nature of the energy transition, as it enables computing of how different driving forces interact. We also demonstrate that leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in participatory scenario workshops yields a more participatory approach to CIB. Some limitations notwithstanding, the insights from the scenario workshops following the novel approach suggest further avenues for improving the process of online participatory scenario methods. This holds significant potential for empirical research under the conditions of a global pandemic and for scenario analysis more generally.