Pathways to a sustainable electricity sector in Kenya: Challenges and transformational factors

Which factors may enable a secure, affordable, and sustainable development of the Kenyan energy system? The present study aims to understand how the country's energy system could be structured in 2050, to unravel the main challenges, and to identify critical leverage points for policy action. To this end, we designed energy scenarios for Kenya using cross-impact balance and succession analysis, drawing extensively from expert judgments. The results highlight the importance of improving the quality of the grid, further reforming the electricity market structure, encouraging more competition, and promoting decentralization as the main leverage points for ensuring a secure and sustainable energy future.